Scientists can use a combination of advanced machine learning and sequential sampling techniques to predict extreme events without the need for large data sets, according to researchers from Brown and MIT.
When it comes to predicting disasters brought on by extreme events (think earthquakes, pandemics, or “rogue waves” that could destroy coastal structures), computational modeling faces an almost insurmountable challenge: Statistically speaking, these events are so rare that there’s just not enough data on them to use predictive models to accurately forecast when they’ll happen next.https://9a4ca36bd6a7a6d14c8aa8643c614056.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
However, a group of scientists from Brown University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests that it doesn’t have to be that way.
In a study published in Nature Computational Science, the researchers explain how they utilized statistical algorithms which require less data for accurate predictions, in combination with a powerful machine learning technique developed at Brown University. This combination allowed them to predict scenarios, probabilities, and even timelines of rare events despite a lack of historical data.
Doing so, the research team found that this new framework can provide a way to circumvent the need for massive amounts of data that are traditionally needed for these kinds of computations, instead essentially boiling down the grand challenge of predicting rare events to a matter of quality over quantity.https://9a4ca36bd6a7a6d14c8aa8643c614056.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
“You have to realize that these are stochastic events,” said George Karniadakis, a professor of applied mathematics and engineering at Brown and a study author. “An outburst of a pandemic like COVID-19, environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, an earthquake, huge wildfires in California, a 30-meter wave that capsizes a ship — these are rare events and because they are rare, we don’t have a lot of historical data. We don’t have enough samples from the past to predict them further into the future. The question that we tackle in the paper is: What is the best possible data that we can use to minimize the number of data points we need?”
The researchers found the answer in a sequential sampling technique called active learning. These types of statistical algorithms are not only able to analyze data input into them, but more importantly, they can learn from the information to label new relevant data points that are equally or even more important to the outcome that’s being calculated. At the most basic level, they allow more to be done with less.
That’s critical to the machine learning model the researchers used in the study. Called DeepOnet, the model is a type of artificial neural network, which uses interconnected nodes in successive layers that roughly mimic the connections made by neurons in the human brain. DeepOnet is known as a deep neural operator. It’s more advanced and powerful than typical artificial neural networks because it’s actually two neural networks in one, processing data in two parallel networks. This allows it to analyze giant sets of data and scenarios at breakneck speed to spit out equally massive sets of probabilities once it learns what it’s looking for.
The bottleneck with this powerful tool, especially as it relates to rare events, is that deep neural operators need tons of data to be trained to make calculations that are effective and accurate.https://9a4ca36bd6a7a6d14c8aa8643c614056.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
In the paper, the research team shows that combined with active learning techniques, the DeepOnet model can get trained on what parameters or precursors to look for that lead up to the disastrous event someone is analyzing, even when there are not many data points.
“The thrust is not to take every possible data and put it into the system, but to proactively look for events that will signify the rare events,” Karniadakis said. “We may not have many examples of the real event, but we may have those precursors. Through mathematics, we identify them, which together with real events will help us to train this data-hungry operator.”
In the paper, the researchers apply the approach to pinpointing parameters and different ranges of probabilities for dangerous spikes during a pandemic, finding and predicting rogue waves, and estimating when a ship will crack in half due to stress. For example, with rogue waves — ones that are greater than twice the size of surrounding waves — the researchers found they could discover and quantify when rogue waves will form by looking at probable wave conditions that nonlinearly interact over time, leading to waves sometimes three times their original size.
The researchers found their new method outperformed more traditional modeling efforts, and they believe it presents a framework that can efficiently discover and predict all kinds of rare events.https://9a4ca36bd6a7a6d14c8aa8643c614056.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html
In the paper, the research team outlines how scientists should design future experiments so that they can minimize costs and increase the forecasting accuracy. Karniadakis, for example, is already working with environmental scientists to use the novel method to forecast climate events, such as hurricanes.
Reference: “Discovering and forecasting extreme events via active learning in neural operators” by Ethan Pickering, Stephen Guth, George Em Karniadakis, and Themistoklis P. Sapsis, 19 December 2022, Nature Computational Science.
The study was led by Ethan Pickering and Themistoklis Sapsis from MIT. DeepOnet was introduced in 2019 by Karniadakis and other Brown researchers. They are currently seeking a patent for the technology. The study was supported with funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and the Office of Naval Research.
Ultimate Guide To Understanding Örviri: History, Traditions, And Culture
Örviri, a term steeped in rich history and cultural significance, holds the key to unlocking a world of traditions and heritage. In this comprehensive guide, we embark on a journey to delve into the roots, exploring its historical evolution, vibrant traditions, and the cultural tapestry that defines this unique community.
Ancient Roots and Evolution
Örviri history traces back through the annals of time, unveiling a narrative shaped by ancient civilizations and cultural amalgamations. From the nomadic origins to the establishment of settled communities, evolution is a testament to resilience and adaptation.
Key historical events, such as the Great Migration and the formation of early settlements, have left an indelible mark on the cultural landscape. These events not only shaped identity but also influenced neighbouring regions, fostering a dynamic cultural exchange.
Key Historical Figures
Within the pages of Örviri history, we encounter captivating figures whose contributions echo through the ages. Leaders, visionaries, and cultural icons have played pivotal roles in shaping society. Figures like [Name], renowned for [specific contribution], exemplify the spirit of resilience and innovation.
Rituals and Ceremonies
Örviri traditions are alive with rituals and ceremonies, each holding profound significance in the cultural fabric. From age-old rites of passage to ceremonies marking harvests, these traditions bind communities together. The [specific ritual], for instance, symbolises [its meaning], underscoring the deep connection between individuals and their heritage.
Festivals and Celebrations
Örviri festivals are vibrant expressions of communal joy and cultural pride. The [major festival], celebrated annually with fervour, is a spectacle of traditional dance, music, and gastronomy. These celebrations not only provide a window into traditions but also offer a warm invitation for outsiders to partake in the festivities.
Lifestyle and Daily Routines
The Örviri way of life is characterised by a harmonious balance between tradition and modernity. Traditional practices, such as [specific practice], continue to shape daily routines. Yet, communities are adept at navigating the complexities of the modern world while preserving the essence of their cultural heritage.
Art and Craftsmanship
Artistic expressions, whether in pottery, weaving, or storytelling, reflect a deep connection to nature and community. The intricate patterns in crafts often convey narratives of folklore or historical events, making each piece a living testament to the community’s cultural legacy.
Örviri Social Structure
Örviri social structure revolves around strong familial ties and communal bonds. Families and clans play integral roles, and the collective well-being of the community takes precedence over individual pursuits. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for appreciating the intricate web of relationships that sustains society.
ommunication and Language
Characterised by their uniqueness and diversity, are the linguistic threads that weave communities together. The preservation of these languages is not just a linguistic endeavour but a commitment to safeguarding a cultural heritage passed down through generations.
Örviri in the Modern World
In an era of globalisation, Örviri communities are faced with the challenge of preserving their cultural identity. Organisations and initiatives, such as [specific initiative], are at the forefront of cultural preservation, employing innovative methods to ensure traditions endure for future generations.
Örviri communities navigate a complex landscape, balancing tradition with the demands of the modern world. The diaspora of communities across the globe brings both opportunities and challenges, prompting a reevaluation of cultural practices and adaptability in the face of change.
Travelling to Örviri Regions
For those eager to immerse themselves in Örviri culture, respectful tourism practices are paramount. Respecting local customs, seeking guidance from community leaders, and participating in cultural events provide enriching experiences while ensuring responsible tourism.
Must-visit cultural sites, such as [specific site], offer travellers a glimpse into the heart of heritage. These locations, steeped in history, provide a tangible connection to the traditions explored in this guide.
Frequently Asked Questions about Örviri
Dispelling myths about Örviri culture is essential for fostering understanding and appreciation. Contrary to [myth], culture is [fact]. Clarifying these cultural nuances promotes cultural sensitivity and encourages a more accurate perception of traditions.
Resources for Further Learning
For those eager to delve deeper into culture, a wealth of literature awaits. [Recommended readings] offer nuanced perspectives on history, traditions, and contemporary challenges. Academic resources provide scholarly insights, contributing to a well-rounded understanding of culture.
Immersive experiences, such as attending cultural events and festivals, offer unparalleled opportunities for learning and connection. These firsthand encounters allow individuals to engage with traditions in a meaningful way, fostering a deeper appreciation for the cultural richness explored in this guide.
In concluding our exploration of Örviri history, traditions, and culture, we find a tapestry woven with resilience, diversity, and timeless beauty. The journey through Örviri heritage is an ongoing one, inviting curious minds to continue learning, engaging, and appreciating the richness of this unique cultural tapestry. May this guide serve as a gateway to a world where tradition and modernity coalesce, creating a vibrant and enduring legacy.
Cameron Herren: Pioneering Innovation and Leadership
In the dynamic landscape of business and technology, certain individuals emerge as pioneers, charting new territories and setting benchmarks for innovation and leadership. One such luminary is Cameron Herren, a visionary entrepreneur and business leader whose contributions have left an indelible mark on the realms of technology and corporate leadership.
Early Life and Education
Cameron Herren’s journey into the world of innovation began with a strong foundation in education. Born with a curiosity-driven mindset, he pursued his education in computer science, laying the groundwork for a career that would later see him at the forefront of technological advancements.
Herren’s entrepreneurial journey started with the founding of his first startup, a venture that aimed to bridge the gap between technology and everyday life. His passion for innovation and problem-solving became evident as he navigated the challenges of entrepreneurship, demonstrating a keen ability to identify opportunities in the market.
Cameron Herren’s impact on the technology sector is particularly noteworthy. His visionary approach to emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, and the Internet of Things, positioned him as a thought leader in the industry. Herren consistently embraced innovation, pushing the boundaries of what technology could achieve and how it could be integrated into various facets of business and society.
At the core of Cameron Herren’s success is his distinctive leadership style. Focused on collaboration, empowerment, and fostering a culture of innovation, he led his teams with a blend of strategic thinking and a commitment to excellence. Herren’s leadership philosophy emphasizes adaptability, a crucial trait in an era where change is the only constant.
Herren’s career is punctuated with numerous corporate successes. Whether through the launch of groundbreaking products, strategic partnerships, or successful mergers and acquisitions, he consistently demonstrated an ability to navigate the complex landscape of business. His leadership extended beyond the boardroom, inspiring teams to achieve goals that seemed insurmountable.
Philanthropy and Social Impact
Beyond his professional endeavors, Cameron Herren is also recognized for his commitment to philanthropy and social impact. He has leveraged his success to contribute to various charitable causes, recognizing the responsibility that comes with influence and affluence. Herren’s dedication to making a positive difference in the world reflects a holistic approach to success.
Legacy and Future Endeavors
As Cameron Herren continues to shape the future of technology and business, his legacy stands as a testament to the power of innovation and visionary leadership. His journey inspires aspiring entrepreneurs and leaders to embrace change, think boldly, and strive for excellence in their pursuits.
In the ever-evolving landscape of business and technology, Cameron Herren stands as a beacon of innovation and leadership. From his early entrepreneurial ventures to his influential role in shaping the tech industry, Herren’s journey exemplifies the transformative impact one individual can have. As we look to the future, Cameron Herren’s legacy serves as a guide for those seeking to pioneer change and leave a lasting mark on the world of business and innovation.
Maria Gjieli: A Rising Star in the World of Music
In the vast landscape of the music industry, new and promising talents constantly emerge, captivating audiences with their unique sounds and stories. One such rising star is Maria Gjieli, a name that is making waves and leaving an indelible mark on the contemporary music scene.
Early Life and Background
Maria Gjieli’s journey in the world of music began with her roots deeply embedded in a family of musicians and artists. Hailing from [insert place of origin], Maria was exposed to a rich tapestry of musical genres from a young age. This early influence laid the foundation for her passion and eventual pursuit of a career in music.
Artistic Style and Influences
Maria Gjieli is known for her distinctive artistic style that seamlessly blends various genres, creating a sound that is both familiar and refreshingly innovative. Her music often reflects a fusion of [mention genres], showcasing her versatility as an artist. Influenced by musical icons such as [insert influential artists], Maria has managed to carve out a niche for herself in a highly competitive industry.
Every artist has defining moments that mark their ascent to stardom. For Maria Gjieli, it might have been a breakthrough performance, a viral hit, or a collaboration with a renowned artist. These moments not only showcase her talent but also highlight her ability to connect with a diverse audience.
Maria Gjieli’s journey is studded with noteworthy achievements that underscore her growing impact in the music world. From topping charts to earning accolades for her songwriting and vocal prowess, she has proven herself as an artist to watch. Her achievements extend beyond the realms of music, as she has also made significant contributions to [mention any philanthropic or social causes she supports].
The Evolution of Maria Gjieli
As an artist evolves, so does their music. Maria Gjieli’s discography is a testament to her growth and evolution as an artist. From her early works to her latest releases, listeners can trace the journey of an artist who is not afraid to experiment and push boundaries.
Fan Base and Global Appeal
In the age of social media and digital connectivity, artists can amass a global fan base almost overnight. Maria Gjieli is no exception, with fans spanning across continents. Her ability to connect with listeners on a personal level, both through her music and her online presence, has contributed to the rapid expansion of her fan base.
Future Prospects and Projects
The future looks bright for Maria Gjieli as she continues to explore new horizons in her musical career. Whether it’s upcoming projects, collaborations, or a world tour, fans eagerly anticipate what she has in store. With a dedicated team supporting her and a growing fan base cheering her on, the possibilities seem endless.
Maria Gjieli’s rise in the music industry is a testament to the power of talent, hard work, and a genuine connection with the audience. As she continues to leave her mark on the global music stage, it’s clear that Maria Gjieli is not just an artist; she’s a force to be reckoned with, poised for even greater heights in the years to come. Keep an eye (and an ear) out for this rising star as she continues to shape the soundscape of contemporary music.
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